The Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections are due to happen in the month of October-November 2022.
As of now, it seems that the incumbent CMJai Ram Thakur of the Bhartiya Janata Party will lead the party going into the election and make sure the party retains the power it won in 2017.
The main fight will be between the ruling party BJP and its main opposition INC.
It will also be the most challenging assembly election for the Congress since Jai Ram Thakur has been one of the best-ranked CM during the Covid times, not to mention the demise of the tallest Congress leader in the state and ex-CM Virbhadra Singh has rattled the unit and hit it hard.
The Aam Aadmi Party too has entered the contest determined to make an impact in the state and increase its outreach and ground organization
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Google Trends
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Latest News
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Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Latest Tweets
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Demographics of the State
95% of the state is Hindu with 2% being Muslims and Sikhs and Buddhists comprising 1% each.
Caste Composition of the State
Rajputs are 32% of the State and the most powerful community in it. Since Independence the state has only seen 6 Chief Ministers with 5 of them belonging to the Rajput Community, their population is uniform throughout the small state
Brahmins are 18% of the State
The Brahmin community too has no shortage of leaders in the state like Shanta Kumar(ex-CM), Anand Sharma (ex-Union Minister and present Rajya Sabha MP, Congress Party), and JP Nadda(Head of the BJP).
Till now Brahmins have only played the role of kingmaker in the state
OBCs : 13.52%
More than 55% of the hill state’s OBC population lives in the Kangra region of the state. The community dominates in 18 assembly segments across the state, and nine of these are in Kangra alone.
SCs : 25.22%
Only second to Rajputs in terms of number but nowhere close to them in political power. There are about 56 Dalit Communities in the state
- These 4 castes comprise at least 75% of the state’s SC population.
- Koris are the largest SC Caste (8%)
- Jatavs/Chamars are the second-largest Caste
- Other SC castes are Valmikis, Halis, and Dooms who together are 10% of the state’s SC population
They mostly live in the mountainous areas bordering China
Seats have been reserved for STs and SCs in the assembly in accordance with their population
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Result of 2019 Lok Sabha Election
In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got all the 4 seats while Congress got nothing. BJPs vote share was also 69% while Congress got only 27.30% vote share. BJP saw an increase of vote share of about 16% while Congress saw their vote share got down about 14% as compared to 2014 Lok Sabha election.
Talking about the assembly segments, in 2019 BJP led in all the 68 assembly seats while Congress were distant second in almost all the seats.
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Result of 2017 Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election
2017 Himachal Pradesh Assembly election was fought on the 5 year of rule of Congress under Chief Minister Veerbhadra Singh. The election turned out to be one sided. Incumbent Congress was replaced by BJP in Himachal Pradesh. BJP won 44 seats out of 68 while Congress got 21 seats out of 68.
BJP saw an increased in its vote share of about 10% while Congress vote share went down by 1.11%. Total Vote share for BJP was 49% while Congress got 42% vote share. Jai Ram Thakur was sworn in as the Chief Minister. However, BJP contested the election under the leadership of Prem Kumar Dhumal but he lost his own seat of Sujanpur. Instead of crowing PK Dhumal as CM and going for by-election in 6 months, BJP chose Jai Ram Thakur as Chief Minister. Jai Ram Thakur had won from Seraj constituency.
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Comparison between 2012 and 2017 Election Result
As compared to 2012 Himachal Pradesh assembly election, BJP made massive gain in 2017 while Congress saw massive losses in all the fronts. In 2012 Congress formed the Government after winning 36 seats out of 68 while the BJP got 26 seats out of 68 becoming the main opposition party. Virbhadra Singh was sworn in as the Chief Minister from INC. In 2017 Congress lost its power as the BJP came to power after winning 44 seats out of 68 while the Congress got 21 seats out of 68, becoming the main opposition party.
In terms of vote share, BJP increased its vote share by 10.33% that is to 48.8% while vote share of Congress saw a decline of 1.11%.
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: How accurate were the Opinion Polls and Exit Polls in 2017?
In 2017, for Himachal Pradesh Assembly election, almost all the Opinion and Exit Polls predicted a win for BJP. The numbers published by most of the polls were somewhat accurate with respect to final result.
Here is what Opinion Polls had predicted:
India Today My Axis gave 43 – 47 seats to BJP with 49% vote share, 21-25 seats to INC with 38% Vote share, 0-2 seats to others with 13% vote share.
ABP News-CDS poll gave 39-45 seats to BJP with 47% vote share, 22-28 seats to INC with 41% vote share
C Voter gave 52 seats to BJP with 50% vote share, 15 seats to INC with 37% vote share, 1 seat to others with 11% vote share.
Here are the Exit Poll numbers for Himachal Pradesh Assembly election 2017:
ABP News- CDS: BJP 35-41 with 45% vote share, INC 26-32 with 42% vote share, others 0-2 seats with 13%
India Today-Axis: BJP 47-55 with 50% vote share, INC 13-20 with 41% vote share, others 0-1 seat with 9% vote share
C Voter gave 41 seats to BJP, 25 seats to INC and 1 seat to others.
Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: 2022 election Opinion Polls
The next election for 68 Assembly seats of Himachal Pradesh will be conducted in the month of December 2022. The Himachal Pradesh Assembly election 2022 Opinion Poll numbers are yet to published.
Crowdwisdom360 has not conducted any opinion poll for this election. Once the polls are conducted, the numbers will be updated.