2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who will be the next President?

Subhash | February 9, 2023

2024 Presidential Election Predictions

Biden vs Trump: Average of Last 3 Polls

  • Donald Trump: 44%
  • Joe Biden: 43%

Biden vs DeSantis: Average of Last 3 Polls

  • Ron DeSantis: 39%
  • Joe Biden: 41%

With Joe Biden in office after the 2020 Presidential Election, the Democrats had all the power to script a new history for the United States. Instead, President Biden is struggling to overcome both internal as well as international challenges. Joe Biden’s Approval Ratings paint a Presidency in serious trouble.

Some polls suggest that neither Biden nor Trump should contest the 2024 election but unless there are serious rivals to challenge both candidates, they could become the candidates for their respective parties.

Joe Biden Approval Rating

Average of Polls: February 8th, 2023

  • Approve: 41.3%
  • Disapprove: 51.3%

Rasmussen Reports: February 7th

  • Approve: 44%
  • Disapprove: 53%

YouGov: February 7th

  • Approve: 41%
  • Disapprove: 50%

Premise: February 6th

  • Approve: 39%
  • Disapprove: 51%

2024 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs Trump

Average of Polls: February 8th, 2023

  • Joe Biden: 43%
  • Donald Trump: 44%

Premise: February 6th

  • Joe Biden: 44%
  • Donald Trump: 44%

Morning Consult: February 5th

  • Joe Biden: 43%
  • Donald Trump: 40%

ABC News: February 1st

  • Joe Biden: 45%
  • Donald Trump: 48%

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Will DeSantis be the next President?

Average of Polls: February 8th, 2023

  • Joe Biden: 41%
  • Ron DeSantis: 39%

Premise: February 6th

  • Joe Biden: 41%
  • Ron DeSantis: 36%

Morning Consult: February 5th

  • Joe Biden: 42%
  • Ron DeSantis: 42%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Jan 29th

  • Joe Biden: 40%
  • Ron DeSantis: 39%

2024 Presidential Candidates odds

Former President Donald Trump is a clear favorite on betting Platforms to be reelected as the President of the United States in 2024. He Leads the charts followed by Ron DeSantis and Joe Biden.

Joe Biden
+275
+275
Donald Trump
+350
+700
Kamala Harris
+1800
+2000
Ron DeSantis
+275
+175

2024 President Election Predictions: Prediction Market

After the mid-term election, the betting platforms have shifted their goalpost, and most of them predict Ron Desantis to be the GOP nominee. Here are the latest preference from Smarkets for the 2024 Presidential election:

  • Ron DeSantis: 26.32%
  • Joe Biden: 23.26%
  • Donald Trump: 14.71%
  • Kamla Harris: 5%
  • Gavin Newsom: 4.76%

2024 US Election Polls: Some Other Polls

Polls on Handling of Classified Documents

Recently both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have been under fire for their handling of classified documents. Both Biden and Trump are under heavy scrutiny due to the discovery of classified files located amid personal items or in unsecured facilities.

As per one ABC news/ IPSOS Poll, majority of the Americans believe that both Trump and Biden have inappropriately handled the classified documents.

As per the poll, 77%, feel that Trump acted inappropriately in the way he handled classified files, while 64%, say the same of Biden.

2024 Presidential Candidates: Republican Party

Before the mid-term election, Donald Trump was the tallest Republican leader and he had a big edge over the rest of the Republican candidates but the mid-term election result did not turn out to be what Trump might have expected as the candidates endorsed by him either lost or pulled out a marginal win. Trump had endorsed over 300 candidates for November 8th election.

Trump had on multiple forums tapped himself for the success of the Republican Party and with Biden’s Approval Rating seeing a sharp fall and the economic condition of the country in turmoil, the Republican Party was predicted to take control of the House as well as Senate. The Republican Party flipped the house, but they failed to flip the Senate. Trump-endorsed candidates were defeated in major states. Some of those candidates are:

Senate

  • Mehmet Oz was defeated in Pennsylvania by John Fetterman.
  • Don Bolduc was defeated in New Hampshire by Sen. Maggie Hassan.

Governor election

  • Tudor Dixon (Michigan)
  • Doug Mastriano (Pennsylvania)
  • Lee Zeldin (New York)
  • Dan Cox (Maryland)
  • Geoff Diehl (Massachusetts)
  • Tim Michels (Wisconsin)
  • Darren Bailey (Illinois)
  • Mark Ronchetti (New Mexico)
  • Derek Schmid (Kansas)
  • Kari Lake (Arizona)

2024 Presidential Candidates: Who will run for President in 2024?

Who is running for president in 2024: Republican Party

In comparison, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis registered a massive win over Democrat Charlie Crist. Desantis has been positioning himself as a Republican candidate for the 2024 Presidential election and with the massive victory in Florida, he is almost certain to run.

Here are a few Republicans who have shown their interest in the Presidential bid:

Declared

  • Donald Trump

Interest Shown

  • Ron DeSantis
  • Mike Pence
  • Nikki Haley
  • Mike Pompeo
  • Ted Cruz
  • Liz Cheney

Who is More Likely to Win the Republican Nomination?

Donald Trump had maintained a huge lead over his fellow Republicans but the November 8th result changed the complete dynamics. The King and the Kingmaker tag of Donald Trump have been overshadowed by Ron DeSantis. Here is the latest winning probability from Smarkets for the GOP nomination:

  • Ron DeSantis: 40.32%
  • Donald Trump: 34.72%
  • Nikki Haley: 4.17%
  • Mike Pence: 3.45%
  • Liz Cheney: 0.6%

Source: Smarkets

Will Donald Trump win the Republican Primary election?

Donald Trump recently announced his 2024 Presidential candidature but he is set to face challenges from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. The latest poll by Emerson College shows Trump has a big advantage over Ron DeSantis. Trump may receive 55% of Republican registered voters’ support while the support for DeSantis stands at 25%.

Trump has more support among the Republicans with a high school degree or less. DeSantis has more support than the ones with College degrees. Republican voters with a postgraduate degree are most split with 32% supporting Trump and 29% supporting DeSantis.

In January 2023, the Republican Party will be electing its new chair. This is different from the 2024 GOP nomination but the contest will be a fierce one as anti-Trump Republicans are set to try their luck to win the Republican chair.

Currently, McDaniel, a staunch Trump ally holds the chair. She is set to be challenged by MyPillow CEO (and ardent Trump defender) Mike Lindell. Lee Zeldin who narrowly lost the New York Governor Race to Kathy Hochul is also expected to join the race.

To the RNC Chair, a candidate will have to win the support of 1/3rd of RNC members. There are 168 RNC members currently.

Polls show How Trump & MAGA is producing cross-pressure over persuadable voters.
According to the latest polls released by Priorities US, voters responded to generic ballot questions preferring GOP (44%) over Democrats (41%). However, when asked about Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) Agenda, the polling improved for Democrats at around 37%, while for Republicans it fell to around 30%.

According to Cecil, Trump and his MAGA approach are producing cross-pressure for persuadable voters. The poll results are also indicative of voters’ reaction to Republican extremism. Results suggest that such voters could easily be pulled to the Democratic side if Joe Biden takes on an attacking approach toward Trump and the GOP.

Who is running for president in 2024: Democratic Party

Joe Biden has already shown his interest in running for the 2024 Presidential election. He may be challenged by VP Kamla Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and others.

Democrat President Candidates Polls: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic Party Nominee?

Joe Biden recently expressed his desire of contesting the 2024 Presidential election and he also said that he would be fortunate to face Donald Trump again in 2024. However, the probability of him being the Democratic party’s nominee is slim.

  1. Health: While public videos are not a reliable metric for assessing the President, president Biden has repeatedly shown signs of a lack of awareness around him.
  2. Mid-term performance: Current forecasts suggest that the Democratic party will lose control of both the House and the Senate. This will make it difficult for President Biden to push his candidature given his historically low approval ratings.
  3. Betting Markets: As per the prediction platform, Smarkets, nearly 60% of the respondents or participants are positive about Biden being the Democratic Party’s nominee for the 2024 Presidential election. Around 8% of the participants believe, Kamala Harris could be the Presidential nominee of Democrats for 2024.

2024 Election: Trump vs Harris Polls

**This scenario may arise if Joe Biden pulls out of the 2024 Presidential Race.

Average of all Polls, February 8th, 2023

  • Kamala Harris- 40%
  • Donald Trump – 46%

Redfield and Wilton Strategies: Jan 29th

  • Kamala Harris- 38%
  • Donald Trump – 43%

Harris Poll, Dec 15th

  • Kamala Harris- 40%
  • Donald Trump – 46%

Mclaughlin and Associates, Dec 14th

  • Kamala Harris- 42%
  • Donald Trump – 49%

2024 Election: Latest News

2024 Election Prediction: Can Donald Trump win the 2024 Elections?

No American President since 1892, has returned to the White House after losing reelection, however, Trump has plenty of reasons to believe otherwise:

  1. Lead in Primary Polls: Republican Primary polling runs favorable to Trump, it is clear that he has established sound influence over the GOP and remains to be a clear favorite choice for the party’s presidential nomination. However, there’s no confirmation for a Presidential Bid from the Florida Governor as he runs this year for reelection so it’s still unlikely that it would affect the Former President’s rerun.
  1. Biden’s inflationary Presidency: President Joe Biden is having a hard time in the White House, with concerns over Inflation his approval rating has been on a constant decline stabilizing at around 40-41%. American Political Analyst Stirewalt described Biden as kind of a lame duck because people in his party openly question not only whether he will run again, but whether he can. Although Biden might be expecting a rerun, his republican counterpart will have a lot of issues to besiege him in debates.
  1. Media Attention: Donald Trump seems to enjoy the media’s attention and that helped him a lot during his 2016 campaign. Although his social media presence has taken a significant blow after his accounts were banned but he still seems to be very much trending over his comments and remarks. The Former President is even referred to as a media magnet in the sense that his comments or remarks seem to dominate the newspapers and social media for the day.
  1. Swift Fundraising Machines at his disposal: Trump is known to extensively raise funds online by selling merchandise prominently through the red “Make America Great Again” hats. These sales fueled cash inflows and provided a great database of supporters and customers who would be easily approached for further support. This not only helps capitalize on his considerable small-dollar base but also helps by establishing a massive war chest. There is no doubt that with swift fundraising machines at his disposal and remarkable support from the GOP at the grassroots and institutional level, Trump’s Reelection bid would have no shortage of funds.
  1. Lack of Competition in Primary: According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided if Trump chooses to rerun and Ron DeSantis is reelected as the Governor of Florida. A Clear GOP field makes it easier for Trump to focus his attention and Campaign resources on the presidential campaign for November 2024. Moreover, Trump himself seems confident of his nomination from the GOP, therefore making his rerun an almost surety unless there is any legal or health concern that prevents him to file for reelection.

Presidential Candidates 2024: Trump Favorability Polls

After over a year and a half of leaving the White House, Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines. Trump had left the office with one of the lowest approval ratings at 39% with a disapproval of 56%. And now even after a tough blow from the Jan 6th hearings, he remains the top contender for the 2024 Presidential Race.

His favorability polls showcase an average of 39% Favorability and around 56% Unfavorability. He’s been leading against Biden over the past few months more than he was for the entirety of 2020. The Former president continues to post the strongest numbers in the 2024 National Primary Polls. According to the GOP Primary Polls, No candidate except Ron DeSantis is even close to Trump in polls, leaving the primary race almost decided if Trump chooses to rerun. Despite continuing trials to hold Donald Trump accountable for the capital attacks, his strong grip over the GOP still seems enviable.

Polling
Company
Date
Favorability
Unfavorability
YouGov
Feb 7
46%
51%
Echelon Insights
Jan 25
35%
62%
NBC News
Jan 24
32%
53%

2024 Election Prediction: What Happened in the Last Election?

On November 3rd, 2020, the United States voted to elect the 46th President of the country. On ballots were the then President, Donald Trump, and the Democratic Party’s representative, Joe Biden.

The 2020 Presidential Election was fought under the fear of Coronavirus. Due to the pandemic, a record number of ballots were cast early and by mail. The election saw the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 with each of the two main tickets receiving more than 74 million votes, surpassing Barack Obama’s record of 69.5 million votes in 2008.

Biden received more than 81 million votes while former President Donald Trump received over 74 million. Biden secured 306 Electoral votes while Trump could get only 232 electoral votes. With counting taking around a week’s time, Joe Biden was declared the winner on November 7th. Biden and Harris were inaugurated on January 20, 2021.

The close States or the States where the Margin of Victory was less than 5%

  1. Georgia, 0.23% (11,779 votes) – 16 electoral votes
  2. Arizona, 0.31% (10,457 votes) – 11 electoral votes
  3. Wisconsin, 0.63% (20,682 votes) – 10 electoral votes
  4. Pennsylvania, 1.16% (80,555 votes) – 20 electoral votes
  5. North Carolina, 1.35% (74,483 votes) – 15 electoral votes
  6. Nevada, 2.39% (33,596 votes) – 6 electoral votes
  7. Michigan, 2.78% (154,188 votes) – 16 electoral votes
  8. Florida, 3.36%- 29 Electoral Votes
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Trump could return as President in the absence of a credible Democratic party nominee

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