Lok Sabha Opinion Polls 2024: Who will be Next PM of India in 2024?

Subhash | February 4, 2023

Lok Sabha Opinion Polls 2024: NDA 298 Seats, UPA 153 Seats, and Others 97 Seats

Latest Indian Election Prediction 2024: BJP: 298, Congress: 69

Google Search Share: BJP 56%, Congress 44%

Social Media Sentiments: BJP -18%, Congress -13%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: NDA to win 400+ Seats


The tenure of the current Lok Sabha which is the 17th Lok Sabha will come to an end on June 16th, 2024. Therefore, the Election Commission of India will have to hold the Election for the 18th Lok Sabha before the term of the current Lok Sabha ends.

The Indian lower house of the Parliament, which is the Lok Sabha has a total of 543 seats. Each seat is filled by members from the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across the Indian states and Union Territories. For any political party or for any political coalition to form their government, will have to win 272 seats. A party failing to win 272 seats on its own can will have to rely on its coalition to win a minimum of 272 to form its government.

For Narendra Modi and his party, Bhartiya Janata Party, the next challenge will be the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Going into the election, Modi will have 10 years of anti-incumbency behind him. His party will be defending 10 years of work done by Narendra Modi. Therefore, will Narendra Modi Win Record 3rd Term?

Lok Sabha Election Prediction 2024

Who is Leading?
Polls
BJP+
Google Search
BJP+
Social Media Sentiments
Congress

2024 Lok Sabha Election: India Today MOTN Survey

  • Approval Rating of PM Modi

2022 August: 56 %, 2023 January: 67 %

  • People dissatisfied with Modi Govt.

2022 August: 32 %, 2023 January: 18 %

  • Mood of The Nation Survey for Lok Sabha polls

NDA : 298 (43%), UPA : 154 (30%)

  • Best Prime Minister

Narendra Modi: 47%, Atal Bihari Vajpayee: 16%, Indira Gandhi: 12%, Manmohan Singh: 08%

Lok Sabha 2024 Breaking

Bihar Breaking: Senior JD(U) leader Upendra Kushwaha said that it was not just him but many senior JDU leaders are in contact with BJP for the upcoming Lok Sabha election 2024. Upendra Khuswaha has been in talks with BJP leaders and there are speculations of him forming a new party and joining hands with BJP or a splinter group from JDU could join him to strengthen BJP.

BJP Claims of Winning 80 Lok Sabha Seats of UP: Uttar Pradesh BJP chief Bhupendra Chaudhary said that BJP is working to win all 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh. However, countering the claims of BJP chief, Samajwadi Chief Akhilesh Yadav said that BJP may lose all 80 seats from Uttar Pradesh.

BJP Intensifies its Pasmanda and Bohra Muslim communities Outreach: Recently PM Modi in the BJP’s NEC meeting set a target for the BJP workers to connect with the Pasmanda and Bohra Muslim Communities. BJP has charted out plans to work on the 65 Lok Sabha seats where these communities have some influence.

Formation of New 3rd Front

In a run-up to the Lok Sabha 2024 election, the Indian National Congress has made it clear, Rahul Gandhi will be the face of UPA and with his Bharat Jodo Yatra, Mr. Gandhi has sent a clear message to all the opposition parties that he will be leading the charge BJP.

However, a new front is developing which is likely to be free from BJP and Congress. The Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has taken the initiative to lead the 3rd front. Recently he inaugurated the Khammam Collectorate Building and in a show of strength, he was joined by Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan, and the Samajwadi Party Chief, Akhilesh Yadav.

However, before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BRS Party formerly TRS will be defending their own fortress, that is Telangana which will go for election in the last month of 2023. If KCR manages to win big he will have bolder say and can pit himself as the PM face. However, it is for time to say how the third front will take shape as the 2024 Lok Sabha election is a year away from now.

Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

India Today Group recently released its latest prediction numbers for “Best Suited to be PM”? Mr. Gandhi seems to have made no progress since January 2019.

As per the prediction, Modi is the choice of 60% of the respondents while Gandhi is around just 30%. The Bharat Jodo Yatra is making almost no impact of the popularity of Rahul Gandhi.

Who is the Next PM of India in 2024: Major Findings

  • The latest Google Search data shows Congress picking up momentum compared to January 2018. This is probably due to the Bharat Jodo Yojana. Still, BJP has a substantial lead.
  • PM Modi enjoys an approval rating of 74% according to the latest Morning Consult survey. Typically an approval rating of 50-55% is enough for re-election
  • Performance of Prime Minister Modi [2019-22]
Lok Sabha Opinion Polls 2024: Who is Next PM of India in 2024?
  • 53% of respondents prefer Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister in 2024
    • 66% of voters think the PM is doing a Good/ Outstanding Job overall
    • 48% of the voters think the Government is doing a Good/ Outstanding job on the economy
  • None of the opposition candidates cross 10% in preference for PM
  • NDA’s Strong Voting Blocks (2019)
    • Upper Caste
    • OBCs
    • These two voting blocks make up about 55% of India’s population. NDA wins nearly 75% of its votes from the two voting blocks
  • The factors favoring Narendra Modi’s re-election in 2024 are:
    • TINA (There Is No Alternative) – The TINA factor has been one of the major factors that helped Narendra Modi cruise through the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The same seems to be turning out to be a major factor that may help Narendra Modi win the consecutive 3rd. As of now, the public is yet to be convinced by any of the opposition faces who could be an alternative to Narendra Modi in 2024.
    • Divided Opposition – After the 2014 Lok Sabha election, there have been talks about opposition unity. But the opposition unity has been more hype than reality. In 2019, a Mahagathbandan was formed to take on Narendra Modi and his party BJP. But by the time the Lok Sabha election in 2019 came, the Mahagathbandan looked more like an alliance between a few parties than the mega opposition coalition. The same turned out to be true even for the 2024 Lok Sabha. The opposition has more faces who are eyeing the Prime Minister’s chair and none want to compromise despite all having the same common enemy, Narendra Modi.
    • Funding – The other main factor that the opposition in India lacks is funding. BJP is not short of funds and with power in major states of India, they can contest any election with a huge might. The opposition on the other hand does not have enough funds to take on the mighty BJP. Though they may show the intent of defeating Narendra Modi and the BJP, the funding issue will keep their campaigning to limited reach and BJP will be able to spread their message to the majority and the message will be loud and clear.
    • Performance on key development initiatives: Apart from the previously implemented, Swacch Bharat Yojana, LPG schemes, PM Kisan Samman Yojana, and PM Awas Yojana have also caught pace

Lok Sabha 2024 Opinion Poll India: Latest Polls

India TV-Matrize Opinion Poll (January 29th)

  • NDA (Bhartiya Janata Party+): 298 seats (Down 64 seats since July 29th) BJP Alone: 284
  • UPA (INC+): 153 seats Congress Alone:69
  • Others: 92 seats

India Today-CVoter (January 26th)

  • NDA (Bhartiya Janata Party+): 298 seats
  • UPA (INC+): 154 seats
  • Others: 102 seats

2024 Lok Sabha Election Possible Alliances (Statewise)

Bihar:

RJD+ CPIML

JDU+Cong+CPI+CPM

BJP + LJP

Andhra Pradesh

YSRCP

BJP

Jana Sena + TDP

(The possible alliance’s information for the rest of the states will be added accordingly)

Political Commentaries for Lok Sabha 2024

Sashi Tharoor:

It will be impossible for the Bharatiya Janata Party to replicate its 2019 electoral triumph in 2024. It is ‘conceivable’ that the ruling party can lose ’50 seats’ in the Lok Sabha.

Amartya Sen

Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee has the ability to be India’s next Prime Minister, but it is yet to be established whether the West Bengal Chief Minister could be able to pull the forces of public dismay against the BJP.

Amitabh Tiwari

The following landscape of the 2024 Lok Sabha election has been shared by Political Analyst Amitabh Tiwari (Twitter: @politicalbaba)

landscape of the 2024 Lok Sabha election

Lok Sabha 2023 Social Media Buzz

Read about Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023 here

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Lok Sabha Election Prediction 2024: Last 7 Days

Google Trends for Parties

Google Trends Leaders

Lok Sabha Opinion Polls 2024: Social Media sentiments

BJP vs Congress

  • BJP: -18%
  • Congress: -13%

Modi vs Gandhi

  • Narendra Modi: +17.7%
  • Rahul Gandhi: -2.7%

Next PM of India: Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

PM Modi, Key Strengths (As per a wide range of experts)

  • Perceived as Strong and Decisive
  • Strong Communication Skills, and ability to connect with masses via multiple communication platforms
  • Efficiency in Implementing Government Programs and Policies

Rahul Gandhi, Key Strengths (As per a wide range of experts)

  • Perceived as focussed towards farmers, rural population, poor, and minorities
  • Seen as more empathetic

PM Modi, Key Weaknesses (as per a wide range of experts)

  • Ability to manage the economy effectively
  • Lack of Inclusiveness, particularly among minorities

Rahul Gandhi, Key Weaknesses (as per a wide range of experts)

  • Lack of experience in Governance
  • Inability to communicate effectively and clearly with voters
  • Broader Political skills

Lok Sabha Election Prediction 2024: Has Any Leader Won Record 3rd Term?

Before Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India, India had 13 Prime Ministers. However, only two Prime Ministers have been elected for three consecutive terms. The first one was the first Prime Minister of India Jawahar Lal Nehru and the second one was his daughter Indira Gandhi. None other than Nehru and Indira Gandhi have been able to win more than 2 consecutive terms.

Jawahar Lal Nehru won the 4th term but was unable to complete his 4th term as he died during his 4th tenure as Prime Minister of India.

Will BJP Lose 2024?

No, there is no scenario in which BJP will lose 2024. The main reasons are moderate economic conditions, direct-to-home benefits programs (Water, Housing, Insurance, etc), lack of competition in Urban seats, absence of a strong opposition leader close to the stature of Modi, and lack of adequate funding.

2019 Lok Sabha Election Summary

In 2014, Narendra Modi and his political party Bhartiya Janata Party won the Lok Sabha election. BJP on its own won 282 seats while the coalition, NDA won a total of 336. It was the first time since 1984 that a party had won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties. BJP on its own got a 31% vote share which was the lowest by any party winning majority on its own since independence.

In 2019, after five years of anti-incumbency, the political pundits were predicting that BJP will emerge as the single largest party DNA Exclusive | Jungle raj, legacy of corruption, 1 million jobs: Why ‘Nitish for PM in 2024’ is easier said not win a majority of its own.

The result surprised many as Narendra Modi-led BJP won 303 seats and the BJP lead coalition NDA (National Democratic Alliance) won 353 seats. Rahul Gandhi-led Congress was once again decimated. They managed to win only 52 seats. BJP managed to improve its vote share too, from 31% in 2014, BJP now got a 37.4% vote share.

vote share chart

Lok Sabha Opinion Poll 2024: Conclusion

The 2024 Lok Sabha election is still two years from now and several state elections are to take place before it. If the opposition is to defeat Narendra Modi and BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election they will have to win most of the upcoming Vidhan Sabha election.

The state that will go for election before the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Barring Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the rest of the states have either a BJP government or a BJP coalition government. The opposition needs to win a maximum of these states in order to keep their hopes high for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Therefore, considering the several factors, it can be said that Narendra Modi may be able to return to power once again unless the opposition comes together and place a strong face against him.

2024 Opinion Poll India: States Elections To Be Conducted Along With LS 2024

Along with the Lok Sabha election in 2024, a few states will also be going to the polls to elect their new Government. The states where elections will be held to elect their new Government are:

  1. Arunachal Pradesh, Current Government: BJP Chief Minister: Pema Khandu
  2. Sikkim, Current Government: SKM Chief Minister: Prem Singh Tamang
  3. Odisha, Current Government: BJD Chief Minister: Naveen Patnaik
  4. Andhra Pradesh Government: YSR Congress Party Chief Minister: YS Jagan Mohan Reddy

Statewise Prediction by India TV Opinion Poll 2024

Gujarat: Total 26, NDA 26, UPA 0.

Maharashtra: Total 48, NDA 37, UPA 11.

Goa: Total 2, NDA 2.

Rajasthan: Total 25, NDA 25.

Madhya Pradesh: Total 29, NDA 28, UPA 1.

Chhattisgarh: Total 11, NDA 10, UPA 1.

West Bengal: Total 42, NDA 14, UPA 2, Others (TMC) 26.

Bihar: Total 40, NDA 35, UPA 5.

Jharkhand: Total 14, NDA 13, UPA 1.

Odisha: Total 21, NDA 11, UPA 2, Others (includes BJD) 8.

Himachal Pradesh: Total 4. NDA 4.

Punjab: Total 13, NDA 3, UPA 3, Others (includes AAP) 7.

Haryana: Total 10, NDA 9, UPA 1.

Jammu & Kashmir, Laddakh: Total 6, NDA 3, UPA 0, Others 3.

Delhi: Total 7, NDA 7, UPA 0, Others 0.

Uttar Pradesh: Total 80, NDA 76, UPA 2, Others 2.

Uttarakhand: Total 5, NDA 5, UPA 0.

Telangana: Total 17, NDA 6, UPA 2, Others (includes TRS) 9.

Andhra Pradesh: Total 25, NDA 0, UPA 0, Others (includes YSRCongress) 25.

Karnataka: Total 28, NDA 23, UPA 4 Others 1.

Tamil Nadu: Total 39, NDA 1, UPA(includes DMK) 38, Others 0.

Kerala: Total 20, NDA 0, UPA 20, Others 0.

Tripura: Total 2, NDA 2, UPA 0.

Assam: Total 14, NDA 11, UPA 1, Others 2.

NE states Total 9, NDA 7, UPA 1, Others 1.

Rest UTs: Total 6, NDA 4, UPA 2, Others 0.

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