Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Who Will Win Karnataka Election in 2023?

Subhash | February 4, 2023

Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: The average of the Karnataka Opinion poll predicts a fractured mandate with Congress as the single largest party.

Opinion Poll Karnataka Averages: Congress: 100 seats, BJP: 81 seats, JD(s): 30 seats

Google Search Volume: BJP: 58% Congress: 35% JD(s): 7%

Karnataka 2023 Election Prediction: Congress has the edge but BJP is likely to make gains in Rural Karnataka


2023 will be a critical year for the BJP as it defends in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka while attempting to defeat the incumbent Congress Governments in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The next election for the legislative assembly of Karnataka will be held in the month of May 2023.

Karnataka has 224 Legislative Assembly seats. Karnataka like Odisha is a 3-way fight. The main contestants here are the BJP, Congress, and JD(S). Unlike most other states, the Congress unit in Karnataka is well organized and well funded after being in power for many years. The BJP on the other hand operates with unusual limitations including limited caste alignments and regional limitations on the account of the JD(S). To complicate matters, Former BJP leader Gali Janardhana Reddy on Christmas announced a political party named ‘Kalyana Rajya Pragati Paksha’ to serve the people of the Kalyana Karnataka region of seven districts – Bidar, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Kalaburagi, Ballari, and Vijayanagara.

Karnataka Election 2023 Date: Likely to be held between May 5th and May 20th of 2023

Karnataka 2023 Election Prediction: Who is Leading?

  • Latest Karnataka Opinion Poll: Congress
  • Google Trends: BJP
  • Social Media Sentiment: JD(S)

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Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Observation and Insights

  1. The current polls give Congress a small edge versus the BJP but only a Congress-JDS alliance can form the next Government.
  2. The Polls show a huge variance between the two major parties’ seat forecasts and that itself means that the election will be closely fought.
  3. In the latest survey, 30% of the respondents approved of the incumbent BJP government in Karnataka, and 24% disapproved of the same.
  4. There are about 20 highly vulnerable BJP seats and another 9 JD(S) seats that could swing to the Congress party. These 29 could take the Congress party closer to 100 while also keeping BJP close to 100. This would then make the JD(S) once again a critical factor in the next Government formation.

Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll

Average of Polls
4th Feb 2023
BJP
81
Congress
100
JDS
30
Karnataka TV
Jan 25th
BJP
99
Congress
79
JDS
41
SAS Group IPSS
Jan 22nd
BJP
70
Congress
111
JDS
27
Karnataka Tracker 2
Jan 6th
BJP
73
Congress
110
JDS
22

**Seats of the Independents/other parties not included.

Discuss: Karnataka Election 2023

Google Trends

  • BJP: 58% (2017 December: 73%)
  • Congress: 35% (2017: 23%)
  • JDS: 7% (2017: 4%)

Social Media Sentiments

  • BJP: -17.7%
  • Congress: -17%
  • JDS: -1.7%

Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Who will be the next CM of Karnataka 2023?

Congress leader Siddaramaiah is the top choice for chief minister among 28% of respondents in a recent survey conducted by South First-People’s Pulse. In comparison, the current Chief Minister and BJP leader Basavaraj Bommai is ranked second and preferred by 19%.

Around 18% picked former CM and JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy as their choice for the CM, and around 11% picked BJP candidate BS Yediyurappa. Only 5% of those who were asked chose DK Shivakumar, the president of the Congress party for Karnataka.

36% of respondents said they were considering the party’s Chief Ministerial candidate as the major factor for casting a vote while only 11% of respondents said that the party’s manifesto mattered for them to decide on who they wanted to vote for.

The latest polls show congress in the lead. While in the case of a hung verdict of elections, around 41% of respondents chose a Congress-JDS alliance, in contrast to 38% of those who chose a BJP-JDS coalition.

Corruption leads the chart as the “major concern” for the voters of Karnataka followed by women’s safety and rising inflation. 38% of those who were asked opined that Congress was better for Karnataka’s development while around 36% believe the same for BJP. A majority (54%) of respondents seemed satisfied with their MLA’s performance and wanted them to be re-elected.

Karnataka Assembly Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Congress vs BJP Governance Performance

  • Per Capita GDP
    • Congress (2015-2018):42.9%
    • BJP (2018-2021): 27.2%
  • Industry Performance
    • Congress (2015-2018):41.7%
    • BJP (2018-2021): 5.1%
  • Foodgrains
    • Congress (2015-2018):-2.9%
    • BJP (2018-2021): +23.4%
  • Power Availability
    • Congress (2015-2018):13.0%
    • BJP (2018-2021): +1.7%
  • Unemployment Rate
    • Congress (2018):1.6%
    • BJP (2022): +1.8%
  • Reading and Numerical Ability (Standard 1 to 3)
    • Congress (2018): Better in 2
    • BJP (2022): Better in 4

According to the key metrics data compiled by crowdwisdom360, the state under the leadership of Siddaramaiah and the INC performed better in terms of economy, industrial development, Power availability, and Infrastructure development while the agriculture sector is being better managed by the BJP government.

The state’s growth rate of the Net domestic product under the leadership of Congress was around 43% while during BJP’s rule, it dipped to the growth rate of 27% (from 2017-18 to 2020-21).

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Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Raichur Seat Predictions

Survey results of Raichur district conducted by Crowdwisdom360 present a JDS majority of 67% in the Devdurga constituency as compared to the 16.2% vote share in 2018. In Maski and Raichur Rural, the INC is leading at 67-66% (Vote Share in 2018: 44.8% and 44.7%). Sindhanur seat is also dominated by JDS (by around 58%) while its vote share in 2018 was 44.10%.

Karnataka Election 2023 Opinion Poll: Demography

Karnataka is the 8th largest state in the country in terms of population. Karnataka’s population in 2022 is estimated to be 6.73 crores with the majority of the population belonging to the Hindu religion.

As per the last census, there are 5.1 crores (84.00%) of the population are Hindu. There is a 7.8 million Muslim population, around 13% of the total population. As per the last census, 1.1 million (1.87%) were Christian, 0.72% were Jains around 440,280, 95,710(0.16%) were Buddhist, 28,773(0.05%) were Sikh and 0.02% were belonging to other religions.0.27 % of the population did not state their religion.

Karnataka has a huge population of Vokhalinga in the southern part of the state and Northern Karnataka has a big population of Lingayat. There are some tribes Nayaka, Soliga, and Yerava.

The major Language spoken in Karnataka is Kannada. There are several caste groups found in the state which speak Konkani and Tamil, Tulu, and Hindi Language.

Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections

In 2008, the BJP under the leadership of B. S. Yeddyurappa came to the power for the first time in a southern state. However, the journey of the BJP government in Karnataka was not smooth. CM Yeddyurappa was forced to resign as Chief Minister in July 2011 due to his alleged involvement in a land scam. After that BJP changed two more Chief Ministers.

In 2013, BJP contested the Karnataka election under the leadership of Jagadish Shettar. BS Yeddyurappa formed his own party Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and it was able to dent BJP massively. The party was reduced to just 40 seats. Congress under Siddaramaiah won an absolute majority (122 seats) while JD(s) won the same number of seats as won by BJP.

In 2018, B. S. Yediyurappa was back in BJP and under his leadership party won 104 seats but fell short of the majority by 9 seats. Congress, which won 80 seats formed an alliance with JD(s) that won 37 seats and formed a coalition government headed by HD Kumaraswamy.

The government lasted for 14 months as 16 Legislators from the ruling coalition resigned and 2 independent MLAs switched their support towards BJP. The majority of the house then shrunk to 105 and during the majority test, HD Kumarasamy lost the trust vote by 100–107 in the house.

On 26 July 2019, B.S. Yeddyurappa took oath as the Chief Minister of Karnataka once again. On 26 July 2021, Yediyurappa resigned from Chief Minister’s post, and Basavaraj Bommai was sworn in as the new Chief Minister on 28 July 2021.

Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023: Caste Wise Voting Patterns in Karnataka Election 2018

The 2018 Karnataka elections concluded with the INC bagging the highest voting share of 38.14% followed by BJP at 36.35% and JDS at 18.3%. The voting share of Congress remained more or less the same as compared to 2013.

The BJP performed well amongst the upper caste (52% voting share), and Lingayat (62% voting share). It also won 18 out of the 22 seats in the coastline region with a 50% voting share. Amongst the OBC voters, the party remained a close second to Congress winning 37% voting share. Interestingly, BJP made great gains in terms of Christian voters bagging around 40% voting share.

Congress on the contrary won a major chunk of the Muslim votes (65%), The party made gains in its voting share from the Dalit and Adivasi communities (48% and 46% of voting shares). The party won around 42% of the voting share of the Hyderabad-Karnataka region. While JDS bagged 25 out of its 37 seats in the South Karnataka region.

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2018 Karnataka Election Result

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