Tripura Election Opinion Poll 2023: Who Will Win Tripura Election in 2023?
Subhash | February 8, 2023
Tripura Election Opinion Poll 2023: Tripura is heading for a triangular fight with Tipra Motha likely to be Kingmaker.
The north-eastern state of India, Tripura is set to go for the polls in the month of February 2023. In 2018, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) created history by ending the 25-year-old rule of the Communist Party in Tripura.
Among all the states, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura, that go for the poll in the next cycle of Assembly election, Tripura will be the most important state for BJP. In the last assembly election, BJP contested in an alliance with IPFT and registered a massive win. IPFT helped BJP get inroads in the tribal-dominated area also known as TTADC. But this time BJP is facing huge resistance here as IPFT has lost its dominance in this region and a new political party, TIPRA under the leadership of Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma has taken its space.
Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma had made it clear, the alliance with BJP will happen only if BJP agrees to their demand of granting a separate state of Tipraland. The TTADC areas have 20 of the 60 Assembly seats in the Tripura Legislative Assembly.
- Tripura Overall Outcome
- Tripura Election: What did the Leaders Say?
- Tripura Election Opinion Poll: Important Updates
- Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: Important Dates
- Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: Observation and Insights
- Latest Tripura Opinion Poll
- Tripura Election Opinion Poll: Latest News
- Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: What Happened in the Last Election?
Tripura Overall Outcome
Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: BJP and IPFT to contest the upcoming Tripura assembly election in an alliance.
Google Search Volume: BJP: 42%, CPIM: 15%, TIPRA: 27% Congress: 11% TMC: 5%
Net Sentiment: Manik Saha: +15%, Manik Sarkar: NA, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma: NA
Tripura 2023 Election Prediction: Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma may play the role of the Kingmaker after the election.
Elections 2023: Before Tripura Election, All India Trinamool Congress Chief Mamata Banerjee Holds March In Agartala
Tripura Election: What did the Leaders Say?
JP Nadda: The BJP national president JP Nadda in his public address in Tripura said, Today’s Tripura is not the old Tripura any longer. This is a ‘New Tripura’, filled with aspirations and achievements. The double-engine government (used to refer to BJP’s government both at the Centre and in state) has truly transformed the face and fortune of the northeastern state, which is marching towards an all-round development.” He also asked voters to vote for BJP so that BJP could finish PM’s Rs 4,350 crore projects in Tripura.
TMC Rajya Sabha MP Sushmita Dev: “The primary goal of the party is to defeat the BJP. I don’t think, from the start till the end, there was any doubt about that.”
Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sharma: “BJP will win with an even bigger vote margin when polls are conducted in Tripura due later this month. Both Congress and Left will not win even a single seat.”
Tripura Election Opinion Poll: Important Updates
- Trinamool Congress has released its manifesto for the upcoming Tripura Assembly election. TMC has promised to bring the Bengal Model of Governance to Tripura. The party has promised to provide 2 lakh jobs in the next five years. TMC has pledged to create 50,000 government employees in the first year and 2 lacks over the following five years. TMC promised to provide monthly financial help of Rs 1,000 to unemployed youths.
- The CPI(M) led Left Front and Congress finalized their seat-sharing. The seat sharing was arrived at on Thursday, the last day for the withdrawal of nomination papers. Left front will be contesting 47 seats while Congress will contest 13 seats.
- BJP Chief JP Nadda is to visit the state on February 3. He will address a massive gathering at the Unakoti district of the state.
- TMC released a list of a total of 37-star campaigners for the upcoming Tripura election. The list included the likes of Lok Sabha MP Mahua Maitra, Kakali Ghosh Dastidar, Mimi Chakraborty, Mayor of Kolkata, and Minister for Urban Development and Municipal Affairs Firhad Hakim. West Bengal Youth Trinamool Congress President Sayani Ghosh, West Bengal State Trinamool Congress Spokesperson Debangshu Bhattacharya, and West Bengal Trinamool Student Council Vice President Sudeep Raha have also been included in the list of star campaigners of TMC for the upcoming Tripura Assembly election.
- For the upcoming Tripura Assembly election 305 nominations have been filed for the 60 seats. The filing of nominations ended on Monday for the February 16 Assembly polls in Tripura.
- Home Minister Amit Shah will be in Tripura on Feb 6 and 12. He is expected to hold rallies in the state for the upcoming Tripura Assembly election.
- The Tipra Motha party, led by former top Congress leader and erstwhile royal Pradyot Manikya Deb Burman, has announced it plans to crowdfund its campaign for this month’s elections in Tripura. TRIPRA is contesting 42 seats.
- 200 more Companies of CAPF will be deployed in Tripura to ensure a free and fair election in the state. Initially, 100 companies of CAPF were already deployed and by early January an additional 100 companies were made operational. Now more than 200 companies will be joining the existing companies.
- TRIPA has decided to go alone in the upcoming assembly election. The party chief, Pradyot Deb Barman has officially confirmed it from his official Twitter handle. In his tweet he wrote, No alliance – my heart does not agree and so I have decided that I cannot accept New Delhi’s offer! Jitega toh jitega harega toh harega but one last fight to karke rahega ! I can’t betray our cause and our people !”
Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: Important Dates
- Date of issue of gazette notification: January 21
- Last date of making notifications: January 30
- Date of scrutiny of notifications: January 31
- Last date for withdrawal of candidatures: February 2
- Date of elections: February 16
- Date of counting: March 2
- Date before the election shall be completed: March 4
Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: Observation and Insights
- The upcoming Tripura election result may turn out to be a game of alliances. With Congress and Left coming together and the ruling BJP unsure of alliance with its tribal partner, IPFT, the Tripura Assembly election 2023 is wide open.
- The leader of the newly formed TRIPA party, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma may be the Kingmaker or he may become the King sitting on the throne of Tripura.
- The 20 assembly seats under TTADC will hold key to government formation. TRIPA is now dominant in the region. However, to a major surprise, in the last Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) election, BJP emerged as the second-largest party.
- Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) has 30 seats and, TIPRA won 18 seats while BJP won 9 seats. However, the tribal alliance partner of the BJP, IPFT failed to open their account.
- The major issues that may dampen BJP’s chances in the state are:
- The issue of over 10,000 teachers’ appointment, who was terminated following the Supreme Court’s verdict. BJP in 2018 had promised to find a solution in their vision document. The issue is yet to be resolved.
- The issue of the separate state Tripraland. BJP has refused to bifurcate the state and directly the 20 seats under this are is affected.
- The Google search volume indicates the increasing popularity of the TIPRA Chief. However, the incumbent CM Manik Saha is equally popular as per the Google trend data. The leader of the opposition, Manik Sarkar is struggling.
Latest Tripura Opinion Poll
No polls have been conducted for the upcoming Tripura Assembly election. The reason may be the absence of a clear alliance picture.
Polls From Twitter
BJP Candidate List
So far BJP has released the names of the candidates for 54 seats. In the first list, 48 names were included and the 2nd list had 6 names. BJP is yet to release the names of the remaining 6 candidates. BJP is in talks with IPFT for the alliance. As per the latest report, BJP and IPFT will be contesting the upcoming election in an alliance. IPFT will be contesting five seats. and BJP will contest 55 seats.
Among the released candidate list, BJP has dropped 6 sitting MLAs. These MLAs are Vimmi Majumdar, Subhash Chandra Das, Arun Chandra Bhowmik, Virendra Kishore Dev Burman, Parimal Debbarma, and Viplav Kumar.
Chief Minister Dr Manik Saha will contest the upcoming state assembly polls from the Town Bordowali constituency. Tripura BJP state president Rajeev Bhattacharya will contest from Biplab Dev’s seat in Banmalipur this time.
Union Minister Pratima Bhowmik will also be contesting the upcoming Tripura Assembly election. In BJP’s candidate list, there are names of 11 women candidates.
Moboshar Ali who joined BJP from CPIM recently will be contesting from the Kailashahar seat. He won this seat in 2018.
List of Candidates
- Manik Saha – Town Bordowali
- Swapna Majumdar – Rajnagar (SC)
- Gautam Sarkar – Belonia
- Pramod Reang – Santirbazar
- Dipayan Choudhury – Hrishyamukh
- Mailaphru Mog – Manu (ST)
- Sankar Roy – Sabroom
- Patal Kanya Jamatia – Ampinagar (ST)
- Ranjit Das – Amarpur
- Bikas Chakma – Raima Valley (ST)
- Manoj Kanti Deb – Kamalpur
- Swapna Das Paul – Surma (SC)
- Suchitra Debbarma – Ambassa (ST)
- Shambhu Lal Chakma – Chawamanu (ST)
- Bhagban Chandra Das – Pabiachhara (SC)
- Sudhangshu Das – Fatikroy (SC)
- Tinku Roy – Chandipur
- Sushanta Chowdhury – Majishpur
- Rebati Mohan Das – Pratapgarh
- Minarani Sarkar – Badharghat
- Antara Deb Sarkar – Kamalasagar
- Sushanta Deb – Bishalgarh
- Himani Debbarma – Golaghati (ST)
- Jishnu Debbarma – Charilam (ST)
- Taffajal Hossain – Boxanagar
- Kishor Barman – Nalchar (SC)
- Debabrata Bhattacharjee – Sonamura
- Pratima Bhowmik – Bhanpur
- Subrato Majumdar – Khowai
- Pinaki Das Chowdhury – Kalyanpur-Pramodenagar
- Kalyani Roy – Teliamura
- Ram Pada Jamatia – Bagma (ST)
- Pranajit Singha Roy – Radhakishorepur
- Abhisekh Debroy – Matarbari
- Jitendra Majumdar – Kakraban-Salgarh (SC)
- Ratan Lal Nath – Mohanpur
- Krishnadhan Das – Bamutia (SC)
- Dilip Kumar Das – Barjala (SC)
- Ratan Chakraborty – Khayerpur
- Surajit Datta – Ramnagar
- Rajiv Bhattacharjee – Banamalipur
- Moboshar Ali – Kailashahar
- Dilip Tanti – Kadamtala-Kurti
- Jadab Lal Nath – Bagbassa
- Biswabandhu Sen – Dharamnagar
- Malina Debnath – Jubarajnagar
- Binay Bhushan Das – Panisagar
- Santana Chakma – Pencharthal (ST)
- Binod Debbarma – Simna (ST)
- Tarit Debbarma – Mandaibazar (ST)
- Ram Prasad Paul – Suryamaninagar
- Bikash Debbarma – Krishnapur (ST)
- Ashim Tripura – Karbook (ST)
- Braja Lal Tripura – Karmachhara (ST)
Congress Candidate List
Congress will be contesting the upcoming Tripura election in alliance with CPIM. A consensus on seat sharing is yet to be reached. Congress, has, however, released the list of 17 candidates contesting the upcoming Tripura Assembly election.
- Prasanta Sen Choudhury – Mohanpur
- Sista Mohan Das – Barjala (SC)
- Sudip Roy Barman – Agartala
- Ashish Kumar Saha – Town Bordowali
- Gopal Roy – Banamalipur
- Keshav Sarkar – Majlishpur
- Raj Kumar Sarkar – Badharghat (SC)
- Susanta Chakraborty – Suryamaninagar
- Ashok Debbarma – Charilam (ST)
- Ashok Kumar Baidya – Teliamura
- Titan Pal – Radhakishorepur
- Pranajit Roy – Matarbari
- Rubi Gope – Kamalpur
- Diba Chandra Hrangkhawl – Karmachara (ST)
- Satyaban Das – Pabiachhara (SC)
- Birajit Sinha – Kailashahar
- Chayan Bhattacharjee – Dharmanagar
Watch this space for the polls.
Tripura Election Opinion Poll: Latest News
Mamata Banerjee Will be the Face of TMC in Tripura: The TMC chief and the West Bengal Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee will be the star campaigner in the poll-bound state. TMC will be contesting all the 60 seats in Tripura and Mamata Banerjee will be their face.
BJP-IPFT Seal Alliance Deal: In a surprise move, IPFT has agreed to contest the upcoming Tripura Assembly election in an alliance with the ruling BJP. BJP will be contesting 55 seats and IPFT will contest on 5 seats.
Tripura Opinion Poll 2023
Google Trends (Party)
- BJP: 42%
- CPIM: 15%
- Congress: 11%
- TIPRA: 27%
- TMC: 5%
- Manik Saha: 33%
- Manik Sarkar: 33%
- Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma: 34%
- Manik Saha: +15%
- Manik Sarkar: NA
- Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma: NA
Tripura Opinion Poll 2023: What Happened in the Last Election?
The last assembly election in Tripura was held on 18th February 2018. The election was held for 59 of the 60 Assembly seats. A close fight was witnessed between the ruling CPIM and the challenger BJP in terms of vote share.
BJP polled 43.59% of the total votes while CPIM got 42.22% vote share. In 2013, BJP was completely non-existent in the state. It polled less than 2% of the total votes. Congress on the other hand got 36.53% vote share in 2013 but in 2018 Congress was reduced to less than 2% vote share.
In terms of seats, BJP won the majority on its own. BJP won 36 seats while its alliance IPFT got 8 seats. The ruling CPIM won just 16 seats.
The election saw a voter turnout of 91.38%. Communist Party has been in power for 25 years prior to the election. Tripura was famously known as a “red holdout.” Manik Sarkar has been the Chief Minister since 1998.
After the election, BJP leader Biplab Deb was appointed the Chief Minister of Tripura in 2018. However, in May 2022, Manik Saha replaced him. Saha left Congress to join the BJP in 2016 and took over as the BJP’s Tripura unit chief in 2020.
Tripura Election Opinion Polls: Demography
Tripura is majorly a rural-dominated state with a major portion of the public living in rural areas. As per the 2011 Census, the total population of Tripura was 36,73,917 with 74% of the population living in the rural areas and 26% living in the urban areas.
The state population comprises of 50% General population while the ST population of the state is around 32%. 18% of the total population belongs to the SC category.
The male population of the state makes up around 51% of the total population while 49% is the female population. The literacy rate is around 76%.