Manipur Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2022

Manipur Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2022
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As per the latest Manipur Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls from ABP News- C Voter there is a close contest between BJP and Congress, could witness hunged assembly

In the last few years, there have been several attempts to dislodge the ruling BJP government in Manipur. However, the incumbent Chief Minister N Biren Singh has been successful in keeping his government intact in the state and maintaining peace between Tribals and non-tribals, Nagas and Kukis.

In 2022, Manipur will go in for the polls once again with its Election scheduled in the month of February-March 2022. The  BJP government which was formed for the first time in the state in 2017 will be defending its 5 years of work when the state goes for polls next year. 

The Congress party under the leadership of Okram Ibobi Singh will do everything it can to regain power over the state and still has a strong fighting chance of winning the state.

The NPP and NPF will do everything they can to increase their numbers to have a seat at the bargaining table.

The state can effectively be divided into 2 parts:- Inner Manipur which is a valley surrounded by Hills i.e. Outer Manipur.
The Hills are dominated by Scheduled Tribes like Nagas and Kukis while the inner valley is dominated by Meiteis and Pangals 

Manipur Assembly Elections 2022 Opinion Polls: Latest Updates

The state of Manipur is going to have assembly elections 2022 in two phases and the dates for the crucial assembly polls are February 27th and March 3rd. The counting day for the assembly elections will be 10th March. The voters will be voting for 60 seats.

The tenure of the Manipur Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on March 19, 2022. The final voter list was released earlier this week.

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Manipur Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Latest Opinion Poll (10th January 2022)

1)ABP News- C Voter poll

Party
Seat share
Voteshare
BJP
23-27
35%
INC
22-26
32%
NPF
2-6
11%
Others
5-9
20%



2) As of now, we have found only 1 opinion poll on Manipur:- The Lok Poll  which was polled between 27th December 2021

Party
Seat share
BJP
26
INC
21
Naga People’s Front
03
National People’s Party
03
TMC
02
Others/independents
10


As per the observations of the agency, BJP is facing some anti-incumbency but not enough to see it out of power. If Congress wants to win it must stitch up some pre-poll alliances and campaign hard

Manipur Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Results of Lok Sabha 2019

Manipur has two Lok Sabha seats, Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur. In the 2019 LS Elections, the BJP won the seat of Inner Manipur and the Naga People’s Front won the seat of Outer Manipur.
2019 LS results

Party
Voteshare
Lok Sabha seats won
Assembly seats ahead in
BJP
34.33%
1/2
26
INC
24.71%
0/2
20
NPF
22.55%
1/1
11
CPI
8.3%
0/1
3

The CPI was contesting in only one seat – Inner Manipur.

Manipur Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: What Happened in 2017 Manipur Election?

The election to 60 members of the Manipur Assembly was held on 4th and 8th March 2017. Results were declared on 11th March 2017.

In the 2012 Manipur Election,  Congress won 42 seats and incumbent Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh was re-elected. BJP failed to open its account while Trinamool Congress was the 2nd largest party in the state by winning 7 seats.

In 2017, Congress emerged as the single largest party by winning 28 seats, BJP won 21 seats, NPF won 4 seats, NPP won 4, and TMC from 7 seats could win only 1 seat. 

Despite being the single largest party, Congress failed to stitch after poll alliance, therefore BJP along with other smaller parties formed government in State. N Biren Singh was elected as Chief Minister of Manipur.

At present in 60-member Manipur Legislative Assembly, BJP has 25 seats, Congress has 17 seats, NPP and NPF have 4 seats respectively, TMC has 1 and there are 3 independent MLAs. 4 seats are lying vacant in Manipur Assembly.

BJP along with NPP, NPF, and with the support of 3 independents are in government. They have a total of 36 seats.

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Manipur Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: What Changed After 2017 Assembly Election?

Despite being just 3 seats short of a majority, Congress failed to form government in the state as it did not get the support of any of the smaller political parties. BJP with the support of NPP and NPF formed and independent MLAs formed government in the state. However, since then there have been attempts to topple the government of the ruling BJP+ in Manipur.

On June 17th six MLAs (4 from NPP) withdrew their support from the BJP led government. Added to it three BJP legislators quit the party and joined the Congress which pushed the government into a minority. 

However, four National People’s Party (NPP) MLAs returned to the coalition fold after the intervention of top BJP leaders and Meghalaya Chief Minister and NPP supremo Conrad K Sangma.

Congress moved the No-Confidence Motion against the government on July 28. But it was rejected by Manipur State Secretary M Ramani Devi, while the ruling coalition’s request for confidence motion was passed. CM N Biren Singh won the confidence motion with a voice vote and was able to save his government in the state.

On the 7th of November 2020, by-elections on 4 seats of Wangoi, Lilong Wangjing Tentha, and Saitu. In the 5th seat of Singat BJP candidate was declared the winner unopposed.

BJP contested on 3 seats while supported independent candidate on Lilong seat. INC fielded its candidates in all 4 seats. BJP won 3 seats and the independent candidate supported by it won on Lilong seat. After the victory, the BJP government in Manipur which was always on the sticky ground was able to cement its position. 

Read: Uttarakhand Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls and News

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