10 8 lang="en-US"> UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: BJP is 245 seats, SP is 136 seats and BSP is 10 seats - Crowdwisdom360 India
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UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: BJP is 245 seats, SP is 136 seats and BSP is 10 seats

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022
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UP Election Opinion Poll 2022 (19th Feb 2022): Average prediction for BJP is 245 seats, SP is 136 seats and BSP is 10 seats.

According to Google Search, the Gap between SP and BJP was the lowest since before the 2017 election until the PM’s Farm Bill withdrawal decision. The Gap has increased again after the decision and now it is 38%

5 opinion polls, google search

UP Opinion Poll 2022: Seat Predictions

Bharatiya Janata Party
Samajwadi Party
Bahujan Samaj Party
Zee News-DesignBoxed
ABP -C Voter
India Tv
Republic-P Marq

The latest opinion polls give BJP a huge advantage over the other parties. Almost every single one of them predicts a BJP victory.

UP Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Crowd Videos

UP Election Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Updates: 28th February

The fifth phase of the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh was completed yesterday at 6 p.m in that the state recorded 54.98% voting.

On Monday Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a huge public meeting in UP’s Ballia. In the sixth phase, voting will be held on March 3 in 57 assembly constituencies of 10 districts.

Total five ministers of the CM Yogi Adityanath government will face a tough fight in the sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls.

The prominent leaders are Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Agriculture Minister Surya Pratap Shahi, Education Minister Satish Chandra Dwivedi, Health Minister Jai Pratap Singh, state Ministers Shree Ram Chauhan and Jai Prakash Nishad.

The Election Commission of India on 8th January, declared the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2022 schedule, declared voting in seven phases on the following dates: February 10, February 14, February 20, February 23, February 27, March 3 and March 7.

The Uttar Pradesh election results will be declared on March 10, 2022.

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Google Search Analysis

2017- 60%, 2019 – 58%, Last 30 days: 55% (Trending Higher)

The BJP has also Dalit voters, specifically Jatav voters loyal to BSP. Nationally, the BJP has been winning the majority of SC-reserved seats in the last two elections. In 2019, it has gained 41% Dalit support at all over India level.

2017- 25%, 2019 – 16%, Last 30 days: 25% (Trending Lower)

The Gap between BJP and SP was 35% in 2017, went up to 42% in 2019, and 38% now. The Gap has reduced to 30% until the PM’s Farm Bill withdrawal decision. This has given BJP a bounce


2017- 4%, 2019 – 2%, Last 30 days: 8% (Trending Lower)

There is a sudden decline in support of BSP which has benefited other parties and the population of SCs (-24%) as the BJP has successfully created a push between Jatavs and non-Jatavs. The BSP risks being reduced to just a Jatav party in 2022. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP achieved 60% of non-Jatav votes.

The current loss of support is mostly shifting towards the SP, which is seen gaining from 22% in 2017 to 31% in 2022 as projected by C-Voter.


2017- 11%, 2019 – 16%, Last 30 days: 10% (Trending Lower)

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UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Social Media Analysis in Uttar Pradesh, Last 7 Days

BSP: +ve Sentiment: 1%, -ve Sentiment: 4%, Net Negative Sentiment: 2%

BJP: +ve Sentiment: 3%, -ve Sentiment: 9%, Net Negative Sentiment: 5%

SP: +ve Sentiment: 4%, -ve Sentiment: 16%, Net Negative Sentiment: 12%

Congress: +ve Sentiment: 12%, -ve Sentiment: 19%, Net Negative Sentiment: 6%

Daily UP Opinion Poll 2022: Will CM Yogi Adityanath return as Chief Minister?

CM Yogi Adityanath is highly likely to complete 5 years in the next 5-6 months. The question is, will he break the jinx and return as Chief Minister after the next election?

As per the latest ABP C Voter Poll(released on February 7th), the preferred CM Choices of the people of UP are:

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022:  3 Reasons why the Opposition parties will struggle to beat the BJP

1. While some regard CM Adityanath as a polarizing figure, he has enjoyed strong support amongst voters in the state. Apart from periodic surveys which show high satisfaction with the CM, the BJP has performed well even in the 2019 election and 2021-22 local elections.

2. None of the current Opposition parties have won anywhere near 35% of the vote in the last 30 years. This is because of the narrow caste and demographic base that each of SP, BSP, and Congress target. Over the last 5 years, all 3 parties have failed to develop leadership that represents the various shades of the UP population.

3. Another way to look at it is through a mix of Leadership development, OBC, and even tokenism, BJP has taken large proportions of the OBC and Upper caste voters along with them. The SP or BSP have failed to find an issue (so far at least) that will make these voters abandon the BJP. 

For example, the UP per capita GDP (Constant currency) has grown by less than 1% in the last 4 years (2017 to 2021), the much-hated (by BJP supporters) Mamata grew Bengal per capita by a whopping 22%. Such stark performance gaps have made a ZERO dent in the popularity of CM Yogi Adityanath, a reflection of how poorly the Opposition has organized themselves over the last 5 years. 

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Caste and Religious Mix of UP

UP is not just India’s largest state but the world’s largest subdivision with a population of 200 million people (as per the 2011 census). In fact, if UP was a separate nation it would be the 8th largest in the world.

Due to the importance of caste and religion in the politics in the state, there are many small parties that cater to the interests of castes in a particular region.

As the census only records the numbers of Religious Minorities and Scheduled Castes/Dalits, all figures of U.C. and O.B.C.s are just estimations based on sample surveys or made by political analysts

The 2 largest communities are Brahmins and Thakurs/Rajputs.
There are other UC Communities like Vaishyas and Baniyas(who mostly live in urban areas), Tyagis, Kayasthas, Khatris  and Bhumihars

The prominent Hindu OBC communities are 

Other OBC communities in the state are Pals, Kashyaps, Prajapatis, Nais, Gujjars, etc

U.P. has the largest SC population in India, most SCs in the state live in rural areas. The prominent SC castes are:

Most Muslims are Sunnis with Shias having a formidable presence in some regions of the state like Lucknow. 
Muslims are generally perceived as a homogeneous vote bank who cast votes en-masse this perception is not true.

Muslims as a community are divided into various sub-groups and based on identity, they can be placed under three categories, Ashraf, Azlaf, and Arzal. If we have to compare to Hindu communities for the sake of general understanding, Ashrafs are similar to UCs, Azlafs to Hindu OBCs, and Arzals to SCs.
Many castes of the latter 2 communities come under the OBC category

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Which party is likely to perform well amongst various castes of Uttar Pradesh?

Since the 2014 LS Election, the  BJP has been performing well on Key caste blocks

BJP Dominated blocks

Total BJP Dominated Blocks share = 54%

Blocks where BJP competes well 

Total BJP Strong Blocks share = 63%

BJP needs to win just 65% of these blocks to win the UP election

Non-BJP Opposition Dominated Blocks

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: What are the Key Issues?

 – 33% of voters believe Ayodhya is a very important issue for them

– Just like our Bengal data, the number 1 issue is inflation. 45% of respondents felt the Yogi Govt failed on this issue

Track Yogi Adityanath’s CM rating every month, click here

16 52 %
2 6 %
6 19 %
0 0 %
5 16 %
2 6 %
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