Gujarat Opinion Polls 2022: Is BJP in for a surprise in Gujarat?
Subhash | November 25, 2022
Private Gujarat Opinion Polls 2022 are suggesting the BJP is in Trouble in Gujarat
A new poll by Shining India Survey gave BJP just a 40.6% vote share. Luckily for BJP, the opposition vote seems to be fragmented. More on it shortly.
Separately, polls by Crowdwisdom in November suggested that the BJP was in for a major loss in seats in Gujarat. In 5 districts completed by Crowdwisdom, the Negative swing against BJP was as follows
- BJP: 16 (-9)*
- Congress 21 (+7)
- AAP 3 (+3)
*Closely contested seats were allocated to the holder of the sea
The good news for BJP is that this poll was carried out only in closely contested seats. The bad news is both polls together show BJP is facing a 5-10% negative swing.
The Shining India Poll is newer and it shows AAP gaining even more in the last 2 weeks. This is good news for BJP in the short run.
So will BJP win Gujarat?
The BJP is well-placed to retain power in Gujarat. It is difficult for either AAP or BJP to win this election as the votes appear to be split between the two. However, BJP is losing a significant vote share and this could be a huge risk for them in the future.