UK Election Polls 2024: Will the UK Have an Early Election?

Subhash | January 31, 2023

UK Election Polls 2024 Average: Labour 48.3%, Conservatives 27.6%, Lib Dems 8%, SNP 3.6%, Green 5%, Reform 5.3%

UK Election Polls 2024 Seat Prediction: Labour 464, Conservatives 91, Lib Dems 20, SNP 53, Green 1, Plaid Cymru 3


In 2010 the Conservative Party under David Cameron succeeded after being out of power for almost 15 years and was able to form their government. James Cameroon successfully completed his first term and won his re-election with a bigger margin.

However, he could not complete his second term and resigned after he failed to get a consensus on breaking from European Union. Since then UK’s politics has been marred by a streak of instability. Theresa May succeeded David Cameroon and was able to win her re-election in 2017 but she failed to complete her term and Boris Johnson succeeded her as Prime Minister.

Under the leadership of Boris Johnson, the Toris contested the 2019 General election. The leader of the main opposition party, Labour was Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives returned to power with a much bigger majority and Boris Johnson was once again elected as Prime Minister. Despite having such a majority, Boris Johnson had to quit as Prime Minister, and now Liz Truss is the PM of the United Kingdom.

In the span of six years, that is since David Cameron resigned (13 July 2016), the United Kingdom has had three different Prime Ministers, but all from the Conservative Party. Liz Truss became the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson resigned after 44 days in office.

The next United Kingdom General election is scheduled for January 2025, however, if the instability continues, there are chances of an early election.

In one latest poll, 17% of the crowd is of the opinion that the next UK election could take place in 2023 while the majority believe it will be in 2024 or later.

UK Election Polls 2024: Major Insights

  • The Conservative Party is in deep trouble mainly on account of this state of the British economy (after Brexit) as well as in-fighting amongst the Tories during and after the Covid pandemic
  • Since 2010 when David Cameron took over, the UK per capita GDP has risen by 17%, the German economy rose 23% while the US Economy has grown by 44%. However, since 2016 after Brexit, the British economy has risen just 12%, Germany by 22% and the American economy rose by 21%. The UK was relatively competitive vis-a-vis Germany between 2010 and 2015, before Brexit
  • This year has been particularly tough as a combination of the pandemic and the Russian Invasion ended Boris Johnson’s tenure as PM. Liz Truss took over for a few weeks before Rishi Sunak become Prime Minister
  • Sunak is polling well as PM but the voters appear to be quite convinced that the Tories must be replaced.
  • Can the Tories win again?
    • With 2 years left for the election, it will be quite difficult if not impossible for the Tories to win the election
    • The Tories are some 10-12% below preference for Sunak, that is a gap that Sunak will be focussed on for the moment.
    • These are voters who prefer Sunak over Starmer but are planning to vote for some other party in their constituency
    • Part of the reason why they prefer Sunak is they don’t like Starmer and his politics.
    • In order to enable this shift, the Tories could attack Starmer and portray him as unreliable. This could move the needle towards the Tories and make the election a very close one.

Latest UK Election Polls 2024: Vote Shares

Polling Average, January 31st

  • Labour 48.3%
  • Conservatives 27.6%
  • Lib Dems 8%
  • SNP 3.6%
  • Green 5%
  • Reform 5.3%

Deltapoll, January 30th

  • Labour 46%
  • Conservatives 29%
  • Lib Dems 9%
  • SNP 4%
  • Green 4%
  • Reform 4%

Redfield & Wilton, January 29th

  • Labour 49%
  • Conservatives 28%
  • Lib Dems 8%
  • SNP 4%
  • Green 5%
  • Reform 5%

Omnisis, January 26th

  • Labour 50%
  • Conservatives 26%
  • Lib Dems 7%
  • SNP 3%
  • Green 6%
  • Reform 7%

UK Election Polls 2024: Seat Predictions

Average, January 31st

  • Labour 464
  • Conservatives 91
  • Lib Dems 20
  • SNP 53
  • Green 1
  • Plaid Cymru 3

Techne, December 22nd

  • Labour 421
  • Conservatives 138
  • Lib Dems 17
  • SNP 52
  • Green 1
  • Plaid Cymru 2

PeoplePolling, Stats for Lefties Estimate, December 21st

  • Labour 490
  • Conservatives 65
  • Lib Dems 21
  • SNP 52
  • Green 1
  • Plaid Cymru 2

Savanta-Electoral Calculus, December 5th

  • Labour 482
  • Conservatives 69
  • Lib Dems 21
  • SNP 55
  • Green 1
  • Plaid Cymru 4

Conclusion

The next United Kingdom General election is scheduled for 2025 but with continuous instability arising in running the government, there are chances of an early election in the United Kingdom. If elections are held in the United Kingdom, the Conservatives may lose power and Labour Party is predicted to return to power with a big majority.

UK Election Polls 2024: Will the Tories shock Labour again?

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