Chicago Mayoral Polls 2023 (Average): Paul Vallas: 43% Brandon Johnson: 39% Undecided: 18%
Latest Chicago Mayoral Election Poll: Paul Vallas: 45% Brandon Johnson: 39% Undecided: 16%
Google Search Trends – Paul Vallas: 53.5%, Brandon Johnson: 46.5%
Eleven candidates were on the ballot on February 28th voting including the incumbent Lori Lightfoot. Lightfoot was elected mayor in 2019. Lightfoot won 17.5% of votes amongst the 14 candidates contesting for the general election In the April 2 runoff election, she defeated Toni Preckwinkle 74% to 26%.
The February 28th voting resulted in a defeat for the incumbent for the first time in over 3 decades. Paul Vallas received the maximum votes with Brandon Johnson in 2nd position.
The runoff election is scheduled for April 4th.
Chicago Mayoral Race Polls: Who are the final Candidates?
The 2023 Chicago Mayoral election was a crowded one but now two candidates will be fighting for the office of Mayor of Chicago. The incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot failed to secure her position among the top two candidates.
Final two candidates:
- Paul Vallas
- Brandon Johnson
Chicago Mayoral Race Polls: Who is Winning the Chicago Mayoral Race?
- Opinion Polls – Paul Vallas
- Google Search Trends – Paul Vallas
Runoff Scenarios
Date(s) | Johnson | Vallas | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Average of Polls | March 16th | 39% | 43% | 18% |
Victory Research | March 6-9 | 39% | 45% | 16% |
Lake Research Partners | March 2-7 | 45% | 40% | 14% |
1983 Labs | March 2-6 | 32.5% | 43.5% | 24% |
Chicago Mayoral Race Polls: Election Process
The election in Chicago is a non-partisan election but most of the time a candidate is backed by a political party. Chicago is generally considered a Democratic Party-dominated region.
The term limit for the office of the Mayor in Chicago is 4 years. The candidate’s name before being listed on the ballot will have to get a minimum of 12,500 signatures from the Chicago voters within the prescribed date.
This year in Chicago the date for getting the 12,500 signatures has been fixed between November 21 to 28th. Candidates failing to get the required number of signatures are disqualified.
The names of the candidates with more than 12,500 signatures are listed on the ballot. On the voting date, voters cast their vote, and the winner is declared on the same day or the next day of the voting.
For a candidate to be declared winner will have to get a minimum of 50% vote share. Since the Chicago Mayoral election has been usually crowded, there have been very rare chances of a candidate receiving a 50% or higher share of votes.
If none of the candidates secures a majority, a run-off election is held. The top two candidates from the Primary election qualify for the run-off ballots. Since there are only two candidates, a winner is declared after the voting and counting is completed for the run-off election.
Population Demography of Chicago
Chicago is a city in the state of Illinois and falls under Cook County. The population of Chicago was 2.7 M in 2015 and in the last 7 years, no increase in the population has been registered in Chicago.
Chicago has more women population than men and as of July 2021, the white population in Chicago is around 48%. The black population adds up to 29% of the population and Hispanics or Latinos together form 28.6% of the total population.
Population Estimates, July 1 2021 | 2,696,555 |
Persons under 5 years | 6.1% |
Persons under 18 years | 20.5% |
Persons 65 years and over | 12.7% |
Female Population | 51.4% |
White alone | 47.7% |
Black or African Americans alone | 29.2% |
American Indians and Alaska Natives alone | 0.3% |
Asian alone | 6.8% |
Two or More Races | 5.3% |
Hispanic or Latino | 28.6% |
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino | 33.3% |
***** Note: The section Below this has the Details of the February 28th election. Information to be updated soon.******
Chicago Mayoral Polls: Insights
The Chicago Mayoral Race heading for a wire finish. The incumbent Lori Lightfoot is gradually losing her hold while her challengers, particularly from her party, Democratic Party are posing a serious threat to Lightfoot’s election.
- As per the latest 1983 Lab Poll, 27.5% of voters are still undecided.
- As per the findings of the latest poll, the White Voters in Chicago are gradually shifting towards Paul Vallas.
- Chuy Garcia leads over the Latinos whereas Willie Wilson is the favorite of the African Americans.
- The polls show Chuy Garcia gradually losing his space to Paul Vallas while Lori Lightfoot may find it difficult to maintain her position as the top two candidates.
- In terms of popularity or Google search volume, Lori Lightfoot is leading behind Paul Vallas.
- Overall, Paul Vallas is on his way to becoming the next Mayor of Chicago.
Will Lori Lightfoot Fail to Finish Among Top Two Candidates?
The incumbent Mayor, Lori Lightfoot is facing tough competition in the crowded Chicago Mayoral Race. Lightfoot had however been among the top two candidates in almost all the polls. However, the recent poll numbers are not at all encouraging for the incumbent.
Lorifoot faces the fear of becoming the first incumbent Chicago mayor in more than three decades to lose an election. The polls have continuously shown none of the candidates are in a position to get the required number to win the race in the 1st round of voting. The Chicago Mayoral election is headed for a runoff.
The incumbent Mayor, Lori Lightfoot is in a position of not making it for the runoff as per the latest poll. In the last Chicago Mayoral Poll, Lightfoot’s poll numbers are lesser than Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson’s.
If the number holds true, Lori Lightfoot would become the first incumbent Mayor in the last 3 decades to lose reelection.
What are the Main Issues for Upcoming Mayoral Race?
- The rise in Crime is the Main Issue Among Chicago Voters
- Chicago Police statistics show that through Jan. 22, 2023, violent crime is 61% higher than the same span in 2022 and 97% greater than in 2021.
- Educational Reform is the most important Issue For the Upcoming Chicago Mayoral Election
- The reforms under this section include setting a minimum salary for teachers, limiting police in arresting or questioning students at school, and creating an elected school board in Chicago.
- Fulfilling the vacant elementary school.
- Expanding universal preschool to 3-year-olds.
- Hiring at least one nurse, librarian, and social worker per school.
- Conduct an external audit of CPS special education practices to improve services.
Chicago Mayoral Polls 2023: Lori Lightfoot Polls
Average of all Polls | February 28th, 2023 |
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia | 13.8% |
Lori Lightfoot | 16.2% |
Brandon Johnson | 16.2% |
Willie Wilson | 11.8% |
Paul Vallas | 26.2% |
1983 Labs | February 25th |
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia | 16% |
Lori Lightfoot | 18% |
Brandon Johnson | 14.5% |
Willie Wilson | – |
Paul Vallas | 24% |
M3Strategies | February 21st |
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia | 11.6% |
Lori Lightfoot | 13.6% |
Brandon Johnson | 18% |
Willie Wilson | – |
Paul Vallas | 32% |
Victory Research | February 15th |
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia | 13.8% |
Lori Lightfoot | 17.1% |
Brandon Johnson | 16.1% |
Willie Wilson | 11.8% |
Paul Vallas | 22.8% |
Chicago Mayoral Election: Endorsements of Top 3 Candidates
Lori Lightfoot
- Alds. Walter Burnett Jr., James Cappleman, Jason Ervin, Michelle Harris, Roberto Maldonado, Emma Mitts, Chris Taliaferro, Scott Waguespack
- Sen. Tammy Duckworth
- Reps. Danny Davis, Robin Kelly
- State Sen. Sara Feigenholtz
- State Reps. Kelly Cassidy, Camille Lilly
- Others: IATSE Local 762, LGBTQ Victory Fund, Plumbers Local Union 130 UA
Paul Vallas
- Alds. Brian Hopkins, Anthony Napolitano, Tom Tunney
- Chicago Chapter FOP, International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 2,
- Chicago Tribune, Gazette Chicago
Chuy Garcia
- Alds. Felix Cardona Jr., Michael Rodriguez, Susan Sadlowski-Garza, Andre Vasquez, Gilbert Villegas
- State Sen. Ram Villivalam
- US Rep. Jan Schakowsky
- Illinois House Democratic Leader Robyn Gabel
Lori Lightfoot Polls: Job Approval Ratings
Lightfoot is the first progressive-identifying candidate to win office in Chicago since Mayor Harold Washington was elected in 1983. She won her 2019 election in a runoff against fellow progressive and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle. Lightfoot has campaigned on her record as mayor, saying she “led the city through the unprecedented challenges of a global pandemic with tough, fair leadership — all while keeping or overdelivering on campaign promises.”
She had promised to reduce violence, and corruption and constitute a Department of the Environment. However many voters believe these promises remain unfulfilled. Crime and public safety remain to be the top concerns for the voters of Chicago.
According to the latest poll conducted by M3Strategies, an overwhelming majority of voters (74%) have an unfavorable view of Lori Lightfoot or disapprove of her performance as mayor. While around 68% of respondents didn’t think she deserved a second chance.
Lightfoot’s conflicts with left-leaning city officials and the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) have led to criticism from some of her former political allies. In particular, she has come under fire for blasting the CTU for refusing to teach in person during last January’s COVID-19 spike, conflict with older persons, and a disruptive response to the 2020 protests regarding the killing of George Floyd.
Chicago Mayoral Polls: Highlights of the First Forum
On Tuesday, a forum was hosted by WGN-TV Channel 9 and was moderated by WGN political reporter Tahman Bradley and anchor Lourdes Duarte. The 9 candidates along with Mayor Lori Lightfoot took part in the forum. The other participants were Ja’Mal Green, Sophia King, Kam Buckner, Willie Wilson, Paul Vallas, Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, Roderick Sawyer, and Brandon Johnson.
Important Points Raised by the Participants
Mayor Lightfoot talked about the success of her administration. She talked about creating the most diverse economy in the country with manufacturing, transportation and logistics, life sciences, food and agriculture, and tech.
Buckner called for a plan to grow the city’s population by $3 million people by 2030. Buckner also accused Mayor Lightfoot of doubling down on “failed policies.” Sawyer called for a plan with “tax and planning strategies,” and said some tax “adjustments” may be required if the financial situation is going in the wrong direction.
Vallas called for the replacement of police Supt. David Brown, a return to community-based policing, and an invitation to retired officers – or officers who have left for other jobs – to return under new leadership without losing any seniority. Garcia also deemed Brown “a failure, and everyone knows it.”
King called for a plan to make Chicago into the “Silicon Valley of the Midwest,” touting the tech industry as the employer of the future.
The Forum saw Willie Wilson facing the heat for his recent comment when he said police should be able to chase down criminals “like rabbits.”
Google Search Volume During and After Forum
- Willie Wilson: 28%
- Lori Lightfoot: 28%
- Sam Buckner: 12%
- Paul Vallas: 20%
- Jesus Garcia: 20%
Chicago Mayoral Race: Google Search Trends
- Lori Lightfoot: 21%
- Chuy Garcia: 15%
- Willie Wilson: 12%
- Paul Vallas: 33%
- Brandon Johnson: 19%
- Lori Lightfoot: 26%
- Chuy Garcia: 17%
- Willie Wilson: 26%
- Paul Vallas: 31%
Chicago Mayoral Polls: Social Media Sentiments
- Wilson: +6%
- Lightfoot: –33%
- Garcia: -24%
- Vallas: -38%
2024 Presidential Election Predictions: DeSantis beats Biden & Trump to lead the betting odds
Lori Lightfoot Polls: Poll Analysis- Impact Research
U.S. Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García is the “front runner” in the race for Chicago mayor, according to a November poll commissioned by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150. However, it is to be noted that shortly after the release of the poll, Local 150 donated $1 million to García’s campaign to help her deny a second term to Lori Lightfoot and defeat the other nine candidates.
According to the poll, Garcia leads at 25% followed by Lightfoot at 18% in the general election. The poll predicts a 55%-25% victory in the runoff race for Garcia.
Lightfoot is deeply unpopular with Chicago voters, with 68% of voters rating her job as mayor negatively. She is also rated negatively by a majority of white (84%) and Latino voters (74%). While the blacks seem to be divided regarding her job approval at 50-50.
Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, endorsed by Chicago Teachers Union is highly unpopular amongst voters. More than 70% of respondents don’t seem to have any view of him.
According to the poll, the top issues concerning Chicagoan voters are crime and public safety followed by housing (24%), Education (22%), Inflation (19%), and taxes (17%).
Chronology Leading To Chicago Election
The Chicago Mayoral Race is scheduled for February 28, 2023. If none of the candidates get the majority of votes, a runoff election will be held on April 4, 2023. Here are the important dates for the upcoming Chicago Mayoral Race:
August 30: This date officially marks the start of the election process for the Chicago Mayoral election. As per the rules, a candidate to make it to the ballot need 12,500 signature of the voters of Chicago. From August 30th, the candidates distribute the nomination petition among the Chicago Voters.
November 21-28: Filing of signed petitions to qualify for the ballot starts on November 21st. The process will continue up to November 28th.
January 30, 2023: Early voting for the Chicago Mayoral election is scheduled to begin.
February 28: The election day to elect the New Mayor of Chicago. However, the election of a New Mayor will depend only on the candidate crossing the required threshold of votes.
Results will be out on the same day, February 28th but it could take a few days depending upon the voting percentage.
April 4: The date for the run-off election if none of the candidates gets 50% of the total votes polled in the February 28th election. The top two candidates from the February 28th election will be on the ballots on this day.
